Hurricane Track Errors from OMEGA Predictions

This table lists the error in the tracks of OMEGA-simulated hurricanes. The errors were computed from comparisons of OMEGA predictions with the observed locations of the storm centers (published by the National Hurricane Center). The error values are in kilometers. OMEGA does not perform any bogussing of the initial vortex. Hence the initial error is quite high in many cases. The track errors are not computed once the storm makes landfall as the storm center is harder to locate in an automated fashion due to the signatures of terrain on pressure and windspeed distributions.

Forecast Hour 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Georges (1998) 81 69 57 59 112 124 138 189 242
Floyd (1999) 25 49 50 46 65 139 224 338 83
Beryl (2000) 48 101 94 192
Chris (2000) 68 160 77 93
Debby (2000) 124 151 206 372 378 294 305
Florence (2000) 55 118 128 89 183 206 549
Helene (2000) 54 115 150 180 114 70
Xangsane (2000) 59 53 122 115 68
Isabel (2003) 21 51 62 83 22 59
Average Error 55 93 104 123 142 168 312 288 163